The Numbers Behind Every Big Decision

The Numbers Behind Every Big Decision

The balance sheet is not just a report. It is the foundation for decisions about contracts, equipment, and growth.

Understanding the balance sheet matters because of what it lets you do next: make decisions with better information than most of your competitors are working with.

Three decisions come up constantly in business. The balance sheet is central to each one.

Decision 1: Should You Take That Contract?

The question isn't whether you can do the work. It's whether your business can finance the work long enough to get paid for it.

The scenario: A general contractor gets invited to bid on a $2M commercial project. Good margin. Reputable owner. Standard payment terms: owner pays 30 days after monthly invoice.

Here's the cash timing problem:

ObligationWhen You Pay
Employee payrollEvery 2 weeks
Subcontractors10–15 days after their invoice
Materials suppliersNet 30
Owner pays you30 days after month-end invoice

By the time the first check arrives, the contractor has been funding 45–60 days of labor, subs, and materials. On $160,000/month in costs, that's $300,000–$320,000 of working capital consumed before dollar one comes in.

Now check the balance sheet:

Amount
Current Assets$280,000
Current Liabilities$210,000
Working Capital$70,000

Taking this contract without additional financing means funding $300,000+ from $70,000 in working capital. Payroll gets missed. Subcontractors go unpaid. The project that was supposed to grow the company nearly breaks it.

The answer isn't to turn down the work. The answer is to know this before signing — so you can negotiate faster payment terms, line up a credit facility, or take the contract with eyes open.

Decision 2: Can You Afford That Equipment?

Most owners think about equipment purchases in terms of the monthly payment. That's not the full picture.

A single equipment purchase affects three things on your balance sheet simultaneously:

ImpactWhat ChangesWhy It Matters
Working capital decreasesDown payment leaves current assetsImmediate reduction in cushion
Leverage increasesNew loan adds to total liabilitiesDebt-to-worth ratio goes up
Debt service increasesNew payment reduces DSCRAffects ability to borrow for anything else

Run these three checks before any major purchase:

CheckQuestionThreshold
Working capitalWhat does it look like after the down payment?Still covers 30–60 days of expenses?
Debt-to-worthWhat does it hit after adding the new loan?Still below 3:1?
DSCRWhat does it drop to after the new annual payment?Still above 1.20?

If all three stay healthy, proceed with confidence. If one goes into uncomfortable territory, that's the variable to manage — maybe a larger down payment, a shorter term, or waiting until the balance sheet has rebuilt.

Decision 3: Can Your Balance Sheet Handle Growth?

Growth is the one that catches the most successful businesses off guard. You land a big client, revenue jumps 30%, you hire ahead of demand — and then cash runs out.

This isn't a hypothetical. It's one of the most common reasons businesses fail, and it happens specifically to businesses doing well.

Why growth consumes cash:

What Grows With RevenueCash Impact
Accounts receivableMore outstanding invoices = more cash tied up
InventoryMore product needed = more cash spent before it's sold
PayrollMore people = more cash out every two weeks
Revenue arrivesLater — after all of the above

Before a growth push, answer three questions:

1. Can my working capital absorb the receivables growth? Calculate your projected revenue increase and the additional receivables it generates. Does current working capital cover it?

Example: Revenue grows from $5M to $6.5M on 45-day terms. Receivables grow from ~$616K to ~$800K — a $184,000 increase. Where does that cash come from?

2. Can I handle the operational cost increase before revenue arrives? New hires, new space, new inventory — those costs hit immediately. Revenue follows. How long is the gap, and what covers it?

3. What does the balance sheet look like at the end of the growth year?

ScenarioEnd-of-Year Balance SheetVerdict
Thin working capital, high leverage, low DSCRFragile entering year twoGrowth outran the balance sheet
Strong working capital, moderate leverage, healthy DSCRBetter position than you startedGrew correctly

The Business That Knows Its Position

There's a business owner who can tell you, right now, their working capital to the nearest $50,000. They know their current ratio. They know their debt-to-worth. When an opportunity comes — a contract, a piece of equipment, a chance to hire ahead — they don't guess. They run the numbers and know within a week whether the answer is yes, no, or yes-if.

That owner has a significant advantage. Not because they're smarter. Because they know something their competitors don't: exactly where they stand.

Most business owners find out after the fact. The loan gets declined and they learn their DSCR was too low. Payroll gets tight and they learn working capital was thinner than they thought. The balance sheet doesn't prevent hard decisions — it just means you make them with your eyes open.

Want to see where your business stands right now? The Bankability Report runs your financials through this same framework and shows you exactly what the numbers say — before you need to know.

jrbohlke.com • The Analysis